Presidential election · Tuesday 10 August 2027
The 2027 presidential race
Everyone in the field: the incumbent, the declared challengers and the names pollsters keep asking about. Each comes with their record, their poll numbers and links to the evidence.
- Election day
- Tuesday 10 August 2027
- Voters in 2022
- 22,120,458 registered; the 2027 register is not final yet
- To win
- More than 50% of all votes, and 25% in at least 24 counties
- Incumbent
- William Ruto (UDA), eligible for a second term
Who is in the race
William Ruto
IncumbentUnited Democratic Alliance (UDA), leader of the Kenya Kwanza coalition
President since 2022. Deputy President 2013 to 2022. Party: UDA.
45.1% in the latest poll that named them (Politrack Africa, 1 Oct 2026); average 32.5% across 6 recent polls.
Edwin Sifuna
DeclaredLinda Mwananchi movement
Nairobi Senator since 2022. Removed as ODM Secretary-General. Linda Mwananchi presidential candidate.
19.6% in the latest poll that named them (Politrack Africa, 1 Oct 2026); average 14% across 5 recent polls.
David Maraga
DeclaredUnited Green Movement (UGM)
Chief Justice 2016 to 2021. United Green Movement (UGM) presidential candidate for 2027.
2% in the latest poll that named them (Infotrak, 13 Jul 2026).
Boniface Mwangi
DeclaredIndependent activist
Photojournalist and human rights activist. 2027 presidential aspirant.
Not in any recent national poll.
Peter Salasya
DeclaredDemocratic Action Party-Kenya (DAP-K)
Mumias East MP since 2022. 2027 presidential aspirant.
Not in any recent national poll.
Kalonzo Musyoka
United Opposition contenderWiper Patriotic Front, a principal of the United Opposition
Vice President 2008 to 2013. Former minister. Wiper leader. United Opposition principal.
10.3% in the latest poll that named them (Politrack Africa, 1 Oct 2026); average 17.5% across 6 recent polls.
Fred Matiang'i
United Opposition contenderJubilee Party (deputy party leader), part of the United Opposition
Education CS 2015 to 2018. Interior CS 2018 to 2022. Jubilee leader.
7.2% in the latest poll that named them (Politrack Africa, 1 Oct 2026); average 11% across 5 recent polls.
Rigathi Gachagua
United Opposition contenderDemocracy for the Citizens Party (DCP), part of the United Opposition
Deputy President 2022 to Oct 2024 (impeached). Former Mathira MP. Leader of DCP.
6% in the latest poll that named them (Politrack Africa, 1 Oct 2026); average 6.5% across 4 recent polls.
Martha Karua
United Opposition contenderPeople's Liberation Party (PLP), part of the United Opposition
Justice Minister 2005 to 2009 (and earlier Water Minister). Former Gichugu MP. Leader of PLP.
1% in the latest poll that named them (Infotrak, 13 Jul 2026).
Okiya Omtatah
Weighing a runNational Reconstruction Alliance
Busia Senator since 2022. Public-interest litigant. Leader of the National Reconstruction Alliance. Weighing a 2027 presidential run.
Not in any recent national poll.
George Wajackoyah
Named in polls1.1% in the latest poll that named them (Politrack Africa, 1 Oct 2026).
Gladys Wanga
Named in pollsOrange Democratic Movement (ODM, national chairperson)
Homa Bay Governor since 2022. Part of the ratified ODM leadership team.
Not in any recent national poll.
George Natembeya
Named in pollsTawe movement (left DAP-K in July 2026)
Trans-Nzoia Governor since 2022. Former Rift Valley Regional Commissioner. Leads the Tawe movement.
Not in any recent national poll.
Ndindi Nyoro
Named in pollsPeople's Party (leader)
Kiharu MP. Former Budget Committee chair. Leader of the People's Party since Aug 2026.
Not in any recent national poll.
Babu Owino
Running for another seatOrange Democratic Movement (ODM)
Embakasi East MP since 2017. Nairobi governor aspirant.
3% in the latest poll that named them (Infotrak, 13 Jul 2026); average 2.3% across 3 recent polls.
No one matches those filters.
Statuses come from each person's record on this site. "United Opposition contender" means a principal of the opposition alliance, which has yet to settle on one candidate. "Named in polls" means a pollster included them; it does not mean they have declared. Sides follow their current party or alliance.
What the polls say
6 national polls in the last 6 months. The latest:
- Politrack Africa, 1 Oct 2026William Ruto 45.1% · Edwin Sifuna 19.6% · Kalonzo Musyoka 10.3% · Fred Matiang'i 7.2%
- Mizani Africa, 25 Sep 2026William Ruto 38.7% · Kalonzo Musyoka 27.5% · Edwin Sifuna 13.2% · Fred Matiang'i 7.7%
- Swiss Poll International, 20 Aug 2026William Ruto 31% · Kalonzo Musyoka 22%
- Infotrak, 13 Jul 2026William Ruto 32% · Kalonzo Musyoka 13% · Edwin Sifuna 12% · Fred Matiang'i 12%
- William Ruto
- Kalonzo Musyoka
- Edwin Sifuna
- Fred Matiang'i
- Rigathi Gachagua
Each dot is one national poll, placed at the end of its fieldwork; the lines join each month's average, and the labels on the right give the latest month's average. Pollsters ask different questions and sample differently, so part of the movement between dots is the pollster, not the race.
Show the numbers as a table
| Poll | Ruto | Kalonzo | Sifuna | Matiang'i | Gachagua |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mizani Africa25 Sep 2026 | 38.7% | 27.5% | 13.2% | 7.7% | – |
| Politrack Africa25 Sep 2026 | 45.1% | 10.3% | 19.6% | 7.2% | 6% |
| Swiss Poll International20 Aug 2026 | 31% | 22% | – | – | – |
| Infotrak26 Jun 2026 | 32% | 13% | 12% | 12% | 4% |
| TIFA Research22 Jun 2026 | 24% | 13% | 15% | 14% | 7% |
| TIFA Research11 May 2026 | 24% | 19% | 10% | 14% | 9% |
| Infotrak20 Dec 2025 | 28% | 12% | 0.2% | 13% | 5% |
How the winner is decided
- DTo win in the first round a candidate needs more than half of all votes cast, and at least 25% of the votes cast in each of more than half of the counties, which means 24 or more of the 47 (Article 138(4)).
- DIf nobody passes both tests, the two candidates with the most votes face a run-off within 30 days, and the one with the most votes wins (Article 138(5) and (7)).
- DEach presidential candidate names a running mate, who becomes Deputy President (Article 148).
- DA candidate must be nominated by a party or stand as an independent, and be backed by at least 2,000 registered voters in each of a majority of counties (Article 137).
- DNo one may serve more than two terms as President (Article 142). William Ruto, elected in 2022, is eligible for a second term.
- DAny voter can challenge the result at the Supreme Court within seven days of the declaration (Article 140).
Key dates
- Tuesday 10 August 2027Election day. Polling stations open 6am to 5pm.
- By Tuesday 17 August 2027Latest date for the IEBC chair to declare the presidential result: within seven days of the vote (Article 138(10)).
- 7 days after the declarationDeadline to file a petition against the presidential result at the Supreme Court (Article 140(1)).
- 14 days after a petitionThe Supreme Court must decide. If it annuls the result, a fresh election follows within 60 days (Article 140).
- Within 30 days of the declarationRun-off between the top two, if no one met both winning tests in the first round (Article 138(5)).
- First Tuesday after 14 daysSwearing-in, if there is no petition. With a petition, the seventh day after the court upholds the result (Article 141).
- To be set by the IEBCParty primaries, nomination of candidates, the campaign period and the final voter register. Dates will be added here when gazetted.
Six votes on one day
The presidential vote is one of six on the day. 11 governor seats are open because of term limits.
- PresidentOne national race. Needs more than half of all votes and at least a quarter of the votes in 24 or more counties.
- GovernorRuns the county government. One per county, 47 in all; limited to two terms.
- SenatorRepresents the county in the Senate, which guards county interests and shares out revenue.
- Woman RepresentativeSits in the National Assembly for the whole county. One per county.
- Member of ParliamentOne per constituency, 290 in all.
- Member of County Assembly (MCA)One per ward, 1,450 in all. Passes county laws and the county budget.
Where things stand after 2022
- DWilliam Ruto (UDA, Kenya Kwanza) won the August 2022 election with 50.49% to Raila Odinga's 48.85%. The Supreme Court upheld the result unanimously on 5 September 2022.
- DRaila Odinga, runner-up in 2022 and a candidate in five presidential elections, died in October 2025 (biography), leaving the opposition field open.
- DRigathi Gachagua, elected Deputy President on Ruto's ticket, was impeached in October 2024 and now leads DCP in opposition (record). Kithure Kindiki replaced him.
Questions
When is Kenya's next general election?
On Tuesday 10 August 2027. The Constitution sets it for the second Tuesday of August every fifth year.
What will I vote for?
Six offices on one day: President, Governor, Senator, Woman Representative, Member of Parliament and Member of County Assembly.
How does a presidential candidate win?
With more than half of all votes cast and at least 25% of the votes in more than half of the 47 counties (24 or more). Otherwise the top two go to a run-off within 30 days.
Who is running for President in 2027?
President William Ruto is eligible for a second term. Edwin Sifuna, David Maraga, Boniface Mwangi, Peter Salasya have declared, the United Opposition has yet to pick one candidate, and others are named in polls. This page lists them all with their records and poll numbers.
Which governors cannot run again in 2027?
Issa Timamy (Lamu), Ahmed Abdullahi (Wajir), Muthomi Njuki (Tharaka-Nithi), Julius Malombe (Kitui), Anne Waiguru (Kirinyaga), Simon Kachapin (West Pokot), Stephen Sang (Nandi), Joseph Ole Lenku (Kajiado), Wilber Ottichilo (Vihiga), Kenneth Lusaka (Bungoma), Peter Anyang' Nyong'o (Kisumu) are in a second term, so those seats will be open.
Is Siasa Compass neutral?
Yes. It does not rank, predict or endorse anyone. Claims are tagged by how strong the evidence is and linked to sources.
Sources
- Constitution of Kenya, 2010 (Kenya Law)
- Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission
- Poll tracker, with every poll's own sources
Candidate details come from each person's record and biography, where the sources are listed. Spotted an error? Send it in.