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2027 presidential polls

Ruto leads all 6 polls

Second place is contested: Kalonzo is second in 4 polls, Sifuna is second in 2 polls. No one is above the 50% needed to win in the first round in any poll.

6 polls from 5 pollsters since 7 Apr 2026 · last checked 7 Oct 2026

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Who is leading

Ranked by the number of polls each person leads, then second places, then third places. Tap a name to see every poll behind it.

  1. 1William Ruto6led02nd03rd24%–45.1%
    PollSharePlace
    Politrack Africa15–25 Sep 202645.1%LeadsDetails
    Mizani Africapublished 25 Sep 202638.7%LeadsDetails
    Swiss Poll Internationalpublished 20 Aug 202631%LeadsDetails
    Infotrak22–26 Jun 202632%LeadsDetails
    TIFA Research13–22 Jun 202624%LeadsDetails
    TIFA Research2–11 May 202624%LeadsDetails

    William Ruto's record and positions, with sources.

  2. 2Kalonzo Musyoka0led42nd13rd10.3%–27.5%
    PollSharePlace
    Politrack Africa15–25 Sep 202610.3%3rdDetails
    Mizani Africapublished 25 Sep 202627.5%2ndDetails
    Swiss Poll Internationalpublished 20 Aug 202622%2ndDetails
    Infotrak22–26 Jun 202613%2ndDetails
    TIFA Research13–22 Jun 202613%4thDetails
    TIFA Research2–11 May 202619%2ndDetails

    Kalonzo Musyoka's record and positions, with sources.

  3. 3Edwin Sifuna0led22nd23rd10%–19.6%
    PollSharePlace
    Politrack Africa15–25 Sep 202619.6%2ndDetails
    Mizani Africapublished 25 Sep 202613.2%3rdDetails
    Infotrak22–26 Jun 202612%3rdDetails
    TIFA Research13–22 Jun 202615%2ndDetails
    TIFA Research2–11 May 202610%4thDetails

    Not named in 1 poll (the pollster did not publish a figure for them).

    Edwin Sifuna's record and positions, with sources.

  4. 4Fred Matiang'i0led02nd33rd7.2%–14%
    PollSharePlace
    Politrack Africa15–25 Sep 20267.2%4thDetails
    Mizani Africapublished 25 Sep 20267.7%4thDetails
    Infotrak22–26 Jun 202612%3rdDetails
    TIFA Research13–22 Jun 202614%3rdDetails
    TIFA Research2–11 May 202614%3rdDetails

    Not named in 1 poll (the pollster did not publish a figure for them).

    Fred Matiang'i's record and positions, with sources.

Also named, never in a top three: Rigathi Gachagua (4%–9%), Babu Owino (2%–3%), David Maraga (2%), George Wajackoyah (1.1%), Martha Karua (1%).

Poll by poll

Politrack Africa

Partly disclosed

Fieldwork 15–25 Sep 2026 · published 1 Oct 2026

William Ruto leads with 45.1%.

  1. Ruto45.1%
  2. Sifuna19.6%
  3. Kalonzo10.3%
  4. Matiang'i7.2%
  5. Gachagua6%
  6. Wajackoyah1.1%

Undecided 8.4%

How it was done and sources
Sample
20,419 people
Method
Text-message (SMS) survey, sampled by county and weighted to each county's share of registered voters.
Margin of error
±3 points
Paid for by
Not published

Nation reported 18% undecided; TV47 and People Daily both reported 8.4%, which also fits the other figures adding up to about 100%.

Mizani Africa

Method not published

Published 25 Sep 2026

William Ruto leads with 38.7%.

  1. Ruto38.7%
  2. Kalonzo27.5%
  3. Sifuna13.2%
  4. Matiang'i7.7%

Undecided 5%

How it was done and sources
Sample
Not published
Method
Not published
Margin of error
Not published
Paid for by
Not published

Mizani did not publish its sample size, method, dates or margin of error. Every other candidate was below 5%.

Swiss Poll International

Method not published

Published 20 Aug 2026

William Ruto leads with 31%.

  1. Ruto31%
  2. Kalonzo22%

Undecided 16%

How it was done and sources
Sample
2,139 people
Method
Not published
Margin of error
Not published
Paid for by
Not published

Only the top two national figures were published. The other names (Sifuna, Matiang'i, Gachagua) were given only as shares of voters who do not back Ruto, so they are not shown here.

Infotrak

Fully disclosed

Fieldwork 22–26 Jun 2026 · published 13 Jul 2026

William Ruto leads with 32%.

  1. Ruto32%
  2. Kalonzo13%
  3. Sifuna12%
  4. Matiang'i12%
  5. Gachagua4%
  6. Babu3%

Also: David Maraga 2%, Martha Karua 1%.

Undecided 18% · would not say 3% · others 1%

How it was done and sources
Sample
3,000 people
Method
Face-to-face (CAPI) and telephone (CATI) interviews in all 47 counties.
Margin of error
±1.79 points
Paid for by
Not published

TIFA Research

Fully disclosed

Fieldwork 13–22 Jun 2026 · published 24 Jul 2026

William Ruto leads with 24%.

  1. Ruto24%
  2. Sifuna15%
  3. Matiang'i14%
  4. Kalonzo13%
  5. Gachagua7%
  6. Babu2%

Undecided 20% · would not say 3% · others 2%

How it was done and sources
Sample
2,048 people
Method
Household face-to-face interviews, mainly in Swahili, across nine zones.
Margin of error
±2.18 points
Paid for by
TIFA Research (self-funded)
Question asked
“Whether or not you have ever voted or intend to vote in the future, whom would you like to win the 2027 presidential election?”

TIFA Research

Fully disclosed

Fieldwork 2–11 May 2026 · published 14 May 2026

William Ruto leads with 24%.

  1. Ruto24%
  2. Kalonzo19%
  3. Matiang'i14%
  4. Sifuna10%
  5. Gachagua9%
  6. Babu2%

Undecided 15% · would not say 3% · others 3%

How it was done and sources
Sample
2,013 people
Method
Household face-to-face interviews, mainly in Swahili, across nine zones.
Margin of error
±2.18 points
Paid for by
Not published
Question asked
“Whether or not you have ever voted or intend to vote in the future, whom would you like to win the 2027 presidential election?”

Capital FM reported Gachagua and Sifuna at 18% each; TIFA's own report has 9% and 10%, which we use.

Earlier polls (not counted)

Polls with fieldwork before 7 Apr 2026 are too old to say much about today. They are kept here for the record.

Infotrak

Fully disclosed

Fieldwork 19–20 Dec 2025 · published 28 Dec 2025

William Ruto leads with 28%.

  1. Ruto28%
  2. Matiang'i13%
  3. Kalonzo12%
  4. Babu7%
  5. Gachagua5%
  6. Karua2%

Also: David Maraga 2%, Gladys Wanga 1%, George Natembeya 1%, Ndindi Nyoro 0.5%, George Wajackoyah 0.2%, Edwin Sifuna 0.2%.

Undecided 25% · would not say 4%

How it was done and sources
Sample
1,000 people
Method
Telephone interviews (CATI) in all 47 counties.
Margin of error
±3.1 points
Paid for by
Not published

We collect polls published by research firms; we do not run our own. A poll is a snapshot of opinion, not a forecast, and the firms ask different questions in different ways. Read how this page works. Spotted a poll we missed or a wrong figure? Tell us.